王学强,樊建春,杨哲,罗双平,徐志凯,蔡正伟,熊毅. 树增强型贝叶斯模型提升溢流预警时间提前量[J]. 石油钻采工艺,2024,46(4):413-428. DOI: 10.13639/j.odpt.202411051
引用本文: 王学强,樊建春,杨哲,罗双平,徐志凯,蔡正伟,熊毅. 树增强型贝叶斯模型提升溢流预警时间提前量[J]. 石油钻采工艺,2024,46(4):413-428. DOI: 10.13639/j.odpt.202411051
WANG Xueqiang, FAN Jianchun, YANG Zhe, LUO Shuangping, XU Zhikai, CAI Zhengwei, XIONG Yi. Enhancing kick detection lead time with a tree-augmented bayesian model[J]. Oil Drilling & Production Technology, 2024, 46(4): 413-428. DOI: 10.13639/j.odpt.202411051
Citation: WANG Xueqiang, FAN Jianchun, YANG Zhe, LUO Shuangping, XU Zhikai, CAI Zhengwei, XIONG Yi. Enhancing kick detection lead time with a tree-augmented bayesian model[J]. Oil Drilling & Production Technology, 2024, 46(4): 413-428. DOI: 10.13639/j.odpt.202411051

树增强型贝叶斯模型提升溢流预警时间提前量

Enhancing kick detection lead time with a tree-augmented bayesian model

  • 摘要: (目的意义)溢流发生到形成井喷事故的间隔时间是防止井喷的重要窗口,为解决现有的贝叶斯溢流预警方法的报警时间滞后、误报率较高的问题。(方法过程)文章通过分析井口溢流状态数据间的关联性,建立树增强型贝叶斯模型;从川渝地区 91 口钻井溢流事件收集到的录井数据中,提取时序性特征录井参数并构建训练数据集;将训练后的模型进行测试,形成了树增强型贝叶斯网络早期溢流识别的预警方法。(结果现象)将训练集外某口井的溢流数据用作预警模型的测试集,树增强型贝叶斯方法的溢流预警模型误报率相较于其他模型降低52.07%;预警模型能够在溢流发生前16.6 min进行报警,相较于朴素贝叶斯早期溢流预警模型的预警时间提前510 s。(结论建议)树增强型贝叶斯早期溢流预警模型引入了溢流发生时异常参数的关联性,能够在较低误报率的前提下将溢流预警时间大幅提前,为基于录井大数据的溢流预警模型提供了新的建立思路。

     

    Abstract: The interval between a kick occurrence and a blowout is a critical window for preventing blowouts. To address the issues of delayed alarm times and high false alarm rates in existing Bayesian kick detection methods, improvements are necessary. This study analyzed the correlation between surface kick data to establish a tree-augmented Bayesian model. Sequential feature logging parameters were extracted from 91 drilling kick events in the Sichuan-Chongqing region to construct a training dataset. The trained model was tested to develop an early kick detection method based on the tree-augmented Bayesian network. Kick data from a well outside the training set was used as the test set for the detection model. The Bayesian-based kick detection model reduced the false alarm rate by 52.07% compared to other models. The detection model issued an alarm 16.6 minutes before the kick occurred, 510 seconds earlier than the naïve Bayesian early kick detection model. The tree-augmented Bayesian early kick detection model incorporates the correlation of anomalous parameters during kick events. It significantly advances the kick detection time while maintaining a lower false alarm rate. This approach provides a new framework for developing kick detection models based on large-scale logging data.

     

/

返回文章
返回