李宏宏,郑力会,张鹏,等. 时间序列统计法预测中国页岩油开采技术发展趋势[J]. 石油钻采工艺,2025,47(2):255-264. DOI: 10.13639/j.odpt.202503001
引用本文: 李宏宏,郑力会,张鹏,等. 时间序列统计法预测中国页岩油开采技术发展趋势[J]. 石油钻采工艺,2025,47(2):255-264. DOI: 10.13639/j.odpt.202503001
LI Honghong, ZHENG Lihui, ZHANG Peng, et al. Prediction of development trend of shale oil production technology in China by time series statistics[J]. Oil Drilling & Production Technology, 2025, 47(2): 255-264. DOI: 10.13639/j.odpt.202503001
Citation: LI Honghong, ZHENG Lihui, ZHANG Peng, et al. Prediction of development trend of shale oil production technology in China by time series statistics[J]. Oil Drilling & Production Technology, 2025, 47(2): 255-264. DOI: 10.13639/j.odpt.202503001

时间序列统计法预测中国页岩油开采技术发展趋势

Prediction of development trend of shale oil production technology in China by time series statistics

  • 摘要: 目前针对页岩油开采的大多数研究内容和方法均借鉴于常规油藏,虽然根据页岩油特点进行了改进和调整,但依然无法完全适用,影响了开发效率。查阅了900多篇与页岩油、致密油开采相关的文献,精选了近50篇代表性强、技术内容创新性良好的文献。根据研究涉及的问题或者目的,涉及驱油介质26篇,微观作用机理15篇,以及开采效益评价5篇,采用ARIMA(1,0,1)模型预测未来5年页岩油开采研究方向的发展趋势,并通过频率统计法优选研究热点。发现22类研究内容中,注水驱油、二氧化碳吞吐采油、吞吐与驱替的评价以及油气动用条件等4类为热点研究方向;21类关键技术中,注水吞吐实验、软件产能预测、油藏数值模拟、二氧化碳吞吐实验、PVT和混相实验、分子动力学模拟等6类为主要的研究方法。运用数学方法进行科学计算和合理预测,能够精准定量把握页岩油开采在未来的研究热点和技术发展方向,有助于科研人员明确研究重点,避免盲目探索。

     

    Abstract: Most of the research contents and methods for shale oil extraction are borrowed from conventional oil reservoirs at present. Although improvements and adjustments have been made according to the characteristics of shale oil, they still cannot be fully applied, which affects the development efficiency. More than 900 literatures related to shale oil and tight oil extraction were reviewed, and 50 literatures with strong representativeness and good innovation in technical content were carefully selected. According to the problems or purposes involved in the research, 26 literatures are related to oil-displacing media, 15 literatures are about the micro-mechanism, and 5 literatures are on the evaluation of development benefits. The ARIMA(1,0,1) model is used to predict the development trend of the research direction of shale oil extraction in the next 5 years. At the same time, the research hotspots are optimized through the frequency statistics method. It is found that among the 22 types of research contents, four types, namely water flooding for oil displacement, CO2 huff and puff oil recovery, evaluation of huff and puff and displacement, and the conditions for oil and gas production, are the hot research directions. Among the 21 types of key technologies, six types, namely water huff and puff experiments, software production capacity prediction, numerical simulation of oil reservoirs, CO2 huff and puff experiments, PVT and miscibility experiments, and molecular dynamics simulation, are the main research methods. Using mathematical methods for scientific calculation and reasonable prediction can accurately and quantitatively grasp the future research hotspots and technological development directions of shale oil extraction, which helps researchers clarify the research focus and avoid blind exploration.

     

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