曾治友,苏堪华,廖原凯,等. 基于改进随机森林算法的卡钻异常预警模型[J]. 石油钻采工艺,2025,47(5):632-645. DOI: 10.13639/j.odpt.202504034
引用本文: 曾治友,苏堪华,廖原凯,等. 基于改进随机森林算法的卡钻异常预警模型[J]. 石油钻采工艺,2025,47(5):632-645. DOI: 10.13639/j.odpt.202504034
ZENG Zhiyou, SU Kanhua, LIAO Yuankai, et al. Stuck pipe anomaly early warning model based on improved random forest algorithms[J]. Oil Drilling & Production Technology, 2025, 47(5): 632-645. DOI: 10.13639/j.odpt.202504034
Citation: ZENG Zhiyou, SU Kanhua, LIAO Yuankai, et al. Stuck pipe anomaly early warning model based on improved random forest algorithms[J]. Oil Drilling & Production Technology, 2025, 47(5): 632-645. DOI: 10.13639/j.odpt.202504034

基于改进随机森林算法的卡钻异常预警模型

Stuck pipe anomaly early warning model based on improved random forest algorithms

  • 摘要: 随着钻井深度的不断增加,钻进过程日益复杂,卡钻事故频发已成为制约钻井作业安全与效率的关键问题。传统方法难以实现对卡钻风险的及时识别与有效预警,机器学习算法为卡钻早期预测与防控提供了新的途径。基于钻井工程参数变化规律,建立了钻井工况识别模型,为卡钻风险分析提供工况依据。通过分析卡钻异常段的特征参数变化,引入滑动窗口机制,提出卡钻风险系数的计算方法。基于改进随机森林算法,构建了新的卡钻风险预警模型。性能预测对比结果表明,所提出的改进随机森林模型在准确率和预警时间方面具有显著优势,平均预测准确率达86.61%,可在卡钻发生前6~10 min发出预警。结合本研究方法开发了卡钻智能预警系统,为现场应用提供了技术和软件支持。研究结果为实现卡钻风险的提前预警提供了新的方法,并为基于机器学习算法的数据驱动卡钻预测模型研究提供了新的思路。

     

    Abstract: With the ever increase in drilling depth, the drilling progress has become increasingly complex, and stuck pipe incidents have frequently emerged as a key factor restricting the safety and efficiency of drilling operations. Traditional approaches struggle to promptly identify and effectively warn stuck pipe risks. In recent years, the rise of machine learning algorithms has provided new avenues for the early prediction and prevention of stuck pipe incidents. In this study, a drilling operation condition recognition model was established based on the variation patterns of drilling engineering parameters, providing an operational basis for stuck pipe risk analysis. By analyzing the characteristic parameter variations across stuck pipe anomaly intervals and introducing a moving window mechanism, a computation method for stuck pipe risk coefficient was proposed. Combined with machine learning algorithms, a novel stuck pipe risk early warning model was developed. Comparative results of performance prediction show that the proposed improved random forest model achieves significant advantages in accuracy and lead time, with an average prediction accuracy of 86.61% and the ability to deliver warnings 6 to 10 minutes before a stuck pipe incident occurs. An intelligent stuck pipe risk early warning system was developed based on this methodology, offering technical and software support for field applications. The findings provide a new approach for early warning of stuck pipe risks and offer new insights into data-driven stuck pipe prediction models based on machine learning algorithms.

     

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