贾鹿,石国伟,蒋能记,等. 基于机器学习技术和优化算法的油井产量预测方法[J]. 石油钻采工艺,2025,47(6):757-764. DOI: 10.13639/j.odpt.202504037
引用本文: 贾鹿,石国伟,蒋能记,等. 基于机器学习技术和优化算法的油井产量预测方法[J]. 石油钻采工艺,2025,47(6):757-764. DOI: 10.13639/j.odpt.202504037
JIA Lu, SHI Guowei, JIANG Nengji, et al. Research on oil well production prediction method based on machine learning technology and optimization algorithm[J]. Oil Drilling & Production Technology, 2025, 47(6): 757-764. DOI: 10.13639/j.odpt.202504037
Citation: JIA Lu, SHI Guowei, JIANG Nengji, et al. Research on oil well production prediction method based on machine learning technology and optimization algorithm[J]. Oil Drilling & Production Technology, 2025, 47(6): 757-764. DOI: 10.13639/j.odpt.202504037

基于机器学习技术和优化算法的油井产量预测方法

Research on oil well production prediction method based on machine learning technology and optimization algorithm

  • 摘要: 油井产量预测是油田生产调度、成本管控及开发方案优化的核心依据。针对传统经验公式或物理模型方法在油井产量预测中精度不足、难以建立有效模型的局限,采用数据驱动技术,应用传统BP神经网络(FNN-BP)、粒子群优化算法(PSO)改进的 FNN-PSO以及长短期记忆神经网络(LSTM)构建了油井产量预测模型,可以根据生产时间、平均井下压力、平均井下温度、平均节流孔尺寸百分比、平均井口压力、平均井口温度、日产气量和日产水量等参数,估算油井的产量。以国外Volve油田NO159-F-14H井生产数据为数据源,经归一化与数据集划分后训练并验证模型。结果表明,3个模型训练、验证和检验结果良好,LSTM训练性能最佳,R2>0.99,RMSE为12.03,在盲验证阶段同样表现最优,R2>0.97,RMSE为5.45。此外,应用PSO训练时,FNN-PSO比FNN-BP模型R2提高了1.43%,RMSE提高了4.06%,表明元启发式算法调优超参数可减少计算量、提高模型的预测精度。各模型误差近似正态分布且均值接近0,表明模型可靠。本研究为油井产量预测提供了有效的方法,未来可将元启发式算法融入LSTM模型,开发出效率更高的预测模型。

     

    Abstract: Oil well production prediction serves as a core basis for production scheduling, cost control, and production plan optimization.This paper addresses the limitations of traditional empirical formula or physical model method in oil well production prediction, which is generally subjected to less accuracy and difficulties in establishment of effective models. On the basis of data-driven technology, traditional BP neural network (FNN-BP), improved FNN-PSO integrated with particle swarm optimization algorithm (PSO), and long-short-term memory neural network (LSTM) are applied to develop the well production prediction model to actually estimate the well production based on such parameters as production time, average downhole pressure, average downhole temperature, average choke size percentage, average wellhead pressure, average wellhead temperature, daily gas and water productivity, etc. The production data from well NO159-F-14H in Volve oilfield abroad were used as the data source to train and validate the model upon the normalization and subdivision of data set. The results indicate that all three models performed well in training, validation, and testing. LSTM exhibits the optimal performance in training, with R2 exceeding 0.99 and RMSE of 12.03. During the blind validation phase, LSTM performed the best as usual, with R2 greater than 0.97 and RMSE of 5.45. Additionally, when applying PSO for training, the FNN-PSO model showed improvements over the FNN-BP model, with a 1.43% increase in R2 and a 4.06% improvement in RMSE, indicating that metaheuristic algorithms for hyperparameter tuning can reduce computational effort and enhance prediction accuracy. The errors of all models approximate a normal distribution, with centers close to zero error, confirming the reliability of the models. This study provides an effective method for oil well production prediction. In the future, integrating metaheuristic algorithms into LSTM models could lead to the development of even more efficient prediction models.

     

/

返回文章
返回