王雪飞,吴立伟,高科超,等. 油藏产能预测技术现状与发展趋势[J]. 石油钻采工艺,2025,47(5):621-631. DOI: 10.13639/j.odpt.202506036
引用本文: 王雪飞,吴立伟,高科超,等. 油藏产能预测技术现状与发展趋势[J]. 石油钻采工艺,2025,47(5):621-631. DOI: 10.13639/j.odpt.202506036
WANG Xuefei, WU Liwei, GAO Kechao, et al. A review of the current status and development of oil reservoir productivity forecast technology[J]. Oil Drilling & Production Technology, 2025, 47(5): 621-631. DOI: 10.13639/j.odpt.202506036
Citation: WANG Xuefei, WU Liwei, GAO Kechao, et al. A review of the current status and development of oil reservoir productivity forecast technology[J]. Oil Drilling & Production Technology, 2025, 47(5): 621-631. DOI: 10.13639/j.odpt.202506036

油藏产能预测技术现状与发展趋势

A review of the current status and development of oil reservoir productivity forecast technology

  • 摘要: 随着油气藏开发不断向深层及非常规领域拓展,产能预测技术在开发方案优化与风险控制中的重要性日益凸显。然而,目前缺乏对产能预测方法的系统综述,制约了该领域的技术整合与发展。通过系统回顾产能预测技术的发展历程,将其归纳为储层参数综合定性分析技术、统计学习产能预测技术、油藏确定性产能预测技术与数智产能预测技术四类方法体系,分析其基本原理、应用场景与局限性,并整合形成了产能预测评价指标体系。研究表明,油藏产能预测误差已从30%降至5%,正迈向数据融合与智能决策的新阶段。未来需推动跨学科数据整合、混合建模及标准化评估体系,以提升预测精度与工程适用性。

     

    Abstract: As hydrocarbon reservoir development extends into deeper zones and unconventional resources, the importance of productivity forecast technology in development plans optimization and hazards control has become increasingly prominent. Currently, however, the absence of a systematic review on productivity forecast methods has hindered technical integration and progress in this field. Through a systematic review of the evolution of productivity forecast technologies, this study categorizes these methods into four methodological systems, i.e.: comprehensive qualitative analysis of reservoir parameters, statistical learning-based productivity forecast, deterministic reservoir productivity forecast, and digital-intelligent productivity forecast. The fundamental principles, application scenarios, and limitations of each method are analyzed, and a integrated evaluation index system for productivity forecast is proposed. Research shows that the error in reservoir productivity forecast has been reduced from 30% to 5%, and the field is advancing toward data-intelligent integration and intelligent decision-making. In the future, the efforts would focus on promoting interdisciplinary data integration, hybrid modeling, and standardized evaluation system, so as to enhance the forecast accuracy and applicability.

     

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