An estimation method based on uncertainty model for offshore drilling investment

Offshore drilling investment is affected by complicated factors, and its uncertainty is greater. Existing estimation methods are all deterministic methods, which can only reflect the average level of previous operations, but cannot reflect the risk and potential of the investment effectively. Therefore, the drilling investment estimated by these deterministic methods will inevitably generate a certain error and impact the investment decisions of petroleum companies. In this paper, the most important factor influencing the drilling investment, i.e., the drilling period and procedure was finely analyzed and classified scientifically. After probability distribution fitting was conducted on the drilling procedure by means of Monte Carlo method, the decision-making model for drilling period estimation was established. Finally, the probability decision-making model for drilling investment estimation was developed by means of investment estimation methods, e.g. daily operation cost and material expense. And it can reflect the risk and potential of drilling investment effectively. The research results provide the scientific investment basis for oil exploration and development and play an important role in reducing the risk of drilling and completion investment.